European Industrial & Logistics Market Fundamentals - Q2 2016
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The JLL Supply Chain Activity Index is expected to rise to 129.0 by the end of the year, signalling further expansion in the logistics market. Take-up of industrial and logistics space in Europe could reach 18 million square meters in 2016, an increase of 5% compared to the previous year. However, uncertainties in the EU economy may pose downside risks. Significant development is underway across Europe, with 10.5 million square meters currently under construction.
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European Industrial & Logistics Market Fundamentals - Q2 2016
- 1. 8.5million sq m JLL Supply Chain Activity Index* expected to rise to 129.0 by year end, up from 128.0 in Q2 2016 – signalling further expansion 18 million sq m could be taken-up in total in 2016, an increase of 5% YoY according to the Index forecast but downside risks remain with uncertainty over the EU economy expected to remain high in the coming months European Industrial & Logistics Market Fundamentals Q2 | 2016 UK CEERussia 44% 44% 47% Western Europe excl. UK 15% H1 2016 marks strongest half-year take-up on record … YoY 5% … with positive momentum expected to be maintained in H2 2016 on 5yr H1 average 24% All markets significantly up on their 5-year H1 average except for France, Hungary, Russia and Spain % share of speculative development by geography – end Q2 2016 COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them. JLL quarterly Industrial & Logistics analysis illustrates the current market condition and examines how it will evolve in the future. All figures are in sq m / €, based on logistics units >5,000 sq m and UK>10,000 sq m www.jll.eu * JLL’s Supply Chain Activity Index, a composite index of economic and supply chain variables that the EMEA Industrial & Logistics Group has constructed to forecast short-term corporate demand for logistics (distribution warehouse) space across Europe. Find out more: http://www.jll.eu/emea/en-gb/research/256/jll-supply-chain-activity-index QoQ 11% QoQ 19% YoY 40% on 5yr Q2 average 57% YoY 26% 80% on 5yr average 80% H1 2016 completion volumes up YoY albeit Q2 marked the second consecutive quarter of slowing overall new space added to the market Strongest growing occupier groups in H1 2016 (YoY) Take-up 3PL providers / couriers YoY 13% 10.5million sq m under construction Significant increase of development over the quarter pushes total under construction to levels not seen since 2008. However, developments remain build-to-suit driven, with no significant impact on vacancy rates expected until the end of the year. 27% YoY Take-up e-commerce driven 145% Strongly growing completion volumes in most of the smaller markets – slowing QoQ volumes driven by France and Russia; Germany slightly down 3PLs remain largest occupier group in H1 but continued alignment to omni-channel distribution models drives retail and e-commerce led activity 18million sq m129.0 Other 6% E-commerce 10% Manufacturing 20% Third Party Logistics 35% Retail companies 29% Top performers YOY Q2 warehousing rents QoQ excl. Russia YoY excl. Russia Rental growth marginally slowing further across Europe in Q2 2016 as the majority of markets saw stable rental environments – albeit some markets saw rents finally moving higher over the quarter: Amsterdam, Leeds, Lyon, Madrid and Rotterdam all moved up QoQ Rental growth slowing YoY but outlook remains positive 0.6% 1.6% Dublin Madrid Glasgow For more information, contact: Alexandra Tornow EMEA Industrial & Logistics Research alexandra.tornow@eu.jll.com Guy Gueirard Head of EMEA Industrial & Logistics guy.gueirard@eu.jll.com Ryan Loftus EMEA Industrial & Logistics Research ryan.loftus@eu.jll.com … with the largest speculative exposure in Russia and CEE; UK remains the strongest market in Western Europe but speculative development reducing Speculative development edges up further but still at low levels of speculative warehousing space under construction at end of Q2 the highest volume since the downturn in 2009; reflecting 27% (22.6% if excluding Russia) of total under construction 2.7million sq m